About

This report is a five-year scenario, written by a group of researchers, think-tankers and investors, all of whom have spent their careers at the intersection of AI and European policy. It begins in January 2025, with the public release of the DeepSeek R1 model, and runs to April 2027, at which point the scenario branches.

The branches are labelled The Drift and The Fight. They are not predictions. They are an exercise in disciplined imagination: each is internally consistent, traceable to current political conditions, and intended to clarify the cost of inaction.

Quantitative panels track three indicators throughout: AI salience in the European Parliament, the funding gap between European and US frontier labs, and the compute gap measured in installed gigawatts.

Issuing body — to be written.

Authors, affiliations, and the editorial process behind this report belong here.

Public value — to be written.

Why the report exists, who it is for, and what kind of decision it is meant to inform belong here.

Forecast confidence — to be written.

Methodology, evidence base, and per-indicator confidence levels belong here.